Former-President Trump Receives a Strong Mandate for a Historic Second Term

The Gist

Former President Donald Trump secured a second term in office, returning after losing his reelection campaign in 2020. This is the president's first return to office after losing reelection since Grover Cleveland achieved that feat in 1892.

President-Elect Trump won in all swing states, reaching 312 electoral votes, while Vice President Harris secured 226 electoral votes.

The Color

The Electoral College Victory for President-Elect Trump, coupled with a popular vote victory (50.5%), control of the Senate (53-46, as of publication), and likely control of the House of Representatives (213-203, as of publication), delivers Republicans a robust mandate.

As of publication, Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego leads his Republican counterpart, Kari Lake, in Arizona with 88% of the vote reported. Furthermore, 19 House seats have yet to be called in several states.

The Takeaways

President-Elect Trump's return to office will likely significantly impact the economy and financial markets, driven by his major policy priorities. Republican's final control of the House, President-Elect Trump's cabinet, and changing economic and geopolitical situations will better inform markets about what policies will be implemented and to what degree.

Markets will be largely focused on the following issues:

Whether the new administration extends or even expands the current tax cuts that took effect in 2017 (under President Trump). What tariffs the administration applies, to what countries, and to what degree. How far the administration goes into finding government efficiency through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. The level of de-regulation across industries. The degree of deportation of illegal immigrants and the admission of legal immigrants.

Investors are mostly concerned about the country's current debt level and worry that the President-Elect's policies will increase the deficit and spur inflation. However, investors are also hopeful that deregulation and lower taxes will lead to greater economic growth.

Note: Electoral results are as published by the Associated Press at the time of publication on Sunday, November 10th at 4:40 pm ET.